Monday, Dec 15, 2003
To share the wealth, seize money from your books, and to dig out the individuals that may be in the red needing that one big play...I'm supplying my MNF GOY as my comp play for this evening in efforts of releasing it to everyone, everywhere, allowing all to see and take advantage of! I'm taking a very unique approach to this evening's game, one of which I'm more than confident that we'll cash! A long with my confidence, I'm laying my sports handicapping reputation on the line with my below content.
Let's first break this game down by numbers, then make our wager, and finally enjoy the winnings! Tonight the high flying Eagles soar into Miami looking to swoop up the fish and cash. In the last two meetings between the two, the Eagles have covered the spread in both. The Eagles this year have entered 5 contest as the 'dog and are 4-1 ATS when doing so. When away from home, the Eagles have been very profitable taking the cash 5 out of 6 times! The Dolphins on the other hand have been making the Miami "locals" very happy with an ATS mark of 1-5 in their last six home games. This is mainly due to Miami being ranked 28th in offense, compiling only 280.4 yards per game.
I'm a very firm believer in..."If it seems too good to be true, it usually is!" and on paper this matchup is very lopsided favoring Philly, so much to the point it indeed seems "to good to be true" making for an easy win. In most cases like this I'll go the other way (because of fluke lines and/or stats overwhelming their foes while being a 'dog, which is the case tonight) BUT watching the line moves all week, I'm convinced the numbers won't lie in this one. The line opened as the Fish being a -1.5 fav and has steadily climbed to -3. When a line rises steadily it's the "squares" (general public) bumping it up with smaller sized wagers over a several day strecth. In this scenario I go the other way as the public usually loses. So here we have 1 scenario that makes me shy away from the team's who's numbers "seem to good to be true" which is the case in Philly, and 1 cenerio I'd jump on due to the line movement in which I'd take the Eagles. So it boils down to this, do I stick to my guns and play the Dolphins because the Eagles numbers vs Miami's "seem too good to be true", or do I follow my general format in line watching and play the Eagles as too many people are on the Dolphins?
My MNF GOY is being released based on the fact I'm COMPLETLY throwing out both of my above mentioned 'capping theories I often utilize as they off-set eachother by totally clashing. By throwing out these two 'capping tools I often figure into my 'capping, it simlpifies things enormously as stats which are usually vital in 'capping, now become a non factor as well do the line moves. With these two components being tossed out, it basically leaves us with one analyst and only one thing to ask ourselves to bag this game, that being...who's the better team? The answer hands down is the Eagles!
Your comp play for tonight - $$$ Eagles +3 $$$ (3 units)
Being my MNF GOY, I'm going to tell you all to pound this play as I did yesterday in my big total play winner (Over in the Bengals game) as the ball was just 3 yards short of the goal line of going over in the first half!
I feel just as strong, if not stronger, about my Eagles selection tonight based on my decision making in pegging this game as I did in yesterday's big win. This is a win what you want game! I've put hours of 'capping, contemplating, and effort into this game and based on my theory, I love our chances of cashing big tonight. I feel confident enough to tell you all here and now...I will not disappoint any persons on this forum who rides my play, and rides it in a big way... LOAD UP ON THIS SELECTION!
Good luck to us all in this very solid MNF GOY release!
- Chance Raven
To share the wealth, seize money from your books, and to dig out the individuals that may be in the red needing that one big play...I'm supplying my MNF GOY as my comp play for this evening in efforts of releasing it to everyone, everywhere, allowing all to see and take advantage of! I'm taking a very unique approach to this evening's game, one of which I'm more than confident that we'll cash! A long with my confidence, I'm laying my sports handicapping reputation on the line with my below content.
Let's first break this game down by numbers, then make our wager, and finally enjoy the winnings! Tonight the high flying Eagles soar into Miami looking to swoop up the fish and cash. In the last two meetings between the two, the Eagles have covered the spread in both. The Eagles this year have entered 5 contest as the 'dog and are 4-1 ATS when doing so. When away from home, the Eagles have been very profitable taking the cash 5 out of 6 times! The Dolphins on the other hand have been making the Miami "locals" very happy with an ATS mark of 1-5 in their last six home games. This is mainly due to Miami being ranked 28th in offense, compiling only 280.4 yards per game.
I'm a very firm believer in..."If it seems too good to be true, it usually is!" and on paper this matchup is very lopsided favoring Philly, so much to the point it indeed seems "to good to be true" making for an easy win. In most cases like this I'll go the other way (because of fluke lines and/or stats overwhelming their foes while being a 'dog, which is the case tonight) BUT watching the line moves all week, I'm convinced the numbers won't lie in this one. The line opened as the Fish being a -1.5 fav and has steadily climbed to -3. When a line rises steadily it's the "squares" (general public) bumping it up with smaller sized wagers over a several day strecth. In this scenario I go the other way as the public usually loses. So here we have 1 scenario that makes me shy away from the team's who's numbers "seem to good to be true" which is the case in Philly, and 1 cenerio I'd jump on due to the line movement in which I'd take the Eagles. So it boils down to this, do I stick to my guns and play the Dolphins because the Eagles numbers vs Miami's "seem too good to be true", or do I follow my general format in line watching and play the Eagles as too many people are on the Dolphins?
My MNF GOY is being released based on the fact I'm COMPLETLY throwing out both of my above mentioned 'capping theories I often utilize as they off-set eachother by totally clashing. By throwing out these two 'capping tools I often figure into my 'capping, it simlpifies things enormously as stats which are usually vital in 'capping, now become a non factor as well do the line moves. With these two components being tossed out, it basically leaves us with one analyst and only one thing to ask ourselves to bag this game, that being...who's the better team? The answer hands down is the Eagles!
Your comp play for tonight - $$$ Eagles +3 $$$ (3 units)
Being my MNF GOY, I'm going to tell you all to pound this play as I did yesterday in my big total play winner (Over in the Bengals game) as the ball was just 3 yards short of the goal line of going over in the first half!
I feel just as strong, if not stronger, about my Eagles selection tonight based on my decision making in pegging this game as I did in yesterday's big win. This is a win what you want game! I've put hours of 'capping, contemplating, and effort into this game and based on my theory, I love our chances of cashing big tonight. I feel confident enough to tell you all here and now...I will not disappoint any persons on this forum who rides my play, and rides it in a big way... LOAD UP ON THIS SELECTION!
Good luck to us all in this very solid MNF GOY release!
- Chance Raven
